Find out whether your confidence matches reality
Log predictions with a confidence level, resolve them against outcomes, and see where you run over- or under-confident — a calibration trainer for forecasters.
US$5, bought once. Payment is handled by Gumroad. JPY pricing is planned for the future Google Play editions.
From buying it to using it offline
- Buy on Gumroad and your license key arrives in the receipt email.
- Swap that key for an unlock code at ektopos.app/redeem, then paste the code into the app.
- You need the internet only the first time (about 10–12 MB). After that it runs with no signal.
What it does
- Record a prediction with a probability, then later resolve it as happened or not
- See a calibration curve: does your 70% actually come true 70% of the time?
- Track over- and under-confidence separately across many forecasts
What it does not do
- Works offline · no account · one-time purchase · no tracking · no ads
- It does not forecast for you or grade your topics — you write the questions and resolve them
- Not a betting app or prediction market; it measures only your own calibration
When it helps
Forecasters, superforecasting practitioners, and anyone testing their own overconfidence